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1.
Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering ; 12602, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20245269

ABSTRACT

In 2021, the airline industry was affected by COVID-19, and many airlines suffered losses. The main reason for the loss were the decline in revenue and the surge in costs. Therefore, in terms of creating the competitive advantage of airlines, "price war" is no longer applicable, and improving service quality has become an effective means. Customer satisfaction is the most effective indicator to measure service quality. In this study, a satisfaction evaluation system is established based on structural equation model and customer satisfaction importance matrix. Then, a questionnaire is designed to analyze the influence of different factors on customer satisfaction. The research finds that brand image and perceived quality have a great impact on customer satisfaction. In addition, some suggestions for airlines to improve customer satisfaction are given. © 2023 SPIE.

2.
Geoscientific Model Development ; 16(11):3313-3334, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-20245068

ABSTRACT

Using climate-optimized flight trajectories is one essential measure to reduce aviation's climate impact. Detailed knowledge of temporal and spatial climate sensitivity for aviation emissions in the atmosphere is required to realize such a climate mitigation measure. The algorithmic Climate Change Functions (aCCFs) represent the basis for such purposes. This paper presents the first version of the Algorithmic Climate Change Function submodel (ACCF 1.0) within the European Centre HAMburg general circulation model (ECHAM) and Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model framework. In the ACCF 1.0, we implement a set of aCCFs (version 1.0) to estimate the average temperature response over 20 years (ATR20) resulting from aviation CO2 emissions and non-CO2 impacts, such as NOx emissions (via ozone production and methane destruction), water vapour emissions, and contrail cirrus. While the aCCF concept has been introduced in previous research, here, we publish a consistent set of aCCF formulas in terms of fuel scenario, metric, and efficacy for the first time. In particular, this paper elaborates on contrail aCCF development, which has not been published before. ACCF 1.0 uses the simulated atmospheric conditions at the emission location as input to calculate the ATR20 per unit of fuel burned, per NOx emitted, or per flown kilometre.In this research, we perform quality checks of the ACCF 1.0 outputs in two aspects. Firstly, we compare climatological values calculated by ACCF 1.0 to previous studies. The comparison confirms that in the Northern Hemisphere between 150–300 hPa altitude (flight corridor), the vertical and latitudinal structure of NOx-induced ozone and H2O effects are well represented by the ACCF model output. The NOx-induced methane effects increase towards lower altitudes and higher latitudes, which behaves differently from the existing literature. For contrail cirrus, the climatological pattern of the ACCF model output corresponds with the literature, except that contrail-cirrus aCCF generates values at low altitudes near polar regions, which is caused by the conditions set up for contrail formation. Secondly, we evaluate the reduction of NOx-induced ozone effects through trajectory optimization, employing the tagging chemistry approach (contribution approach to tag species according to their emission categories and to inherit these tags to other species during the subsequent chemical reactions). The simulation results show that climate-optimized trajectories reduce the radiative forcing contribution from aviation NOx-induced ozone compared to cost-optimized trajectories. Finally, we couple the ACCF 1.0 to the air traffic simulation submodel AirTraf version 2.0 and demonstrate the variability of the flight trajectories when the efficacy of individual effects is considered. Based on the 1 d simulation results of a subset of European flights, the total ATR20 of the climate-optimized flights is significantly lower (roughly 50 % less) than that of the cost-optimized flights, with the most considerable contribution from contrail cirrus. The CO2 contribution observed in this study is low compared with the non-CO2 effects, which requires further diagnosis.

3.
Advances in African Economic, Social and Political Development ; : 189-235, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20242372

ABSTRACT

Tourism in Africa has experienced not only strong growth in terms of arrivals, but also in terms of expenditures and revenues and this has been driven primarily by a high number of international arrivals. The chapter examines some of Africa's high growth tourism markets with the largest international tourism receipts and compounded growth of approximately 6% per year. The chapter examines the multiple types of tourism and its economic benefit in terms of supporting national gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Tourism should be developed for its potential to enhance economies. Important aspects amongst tourism's benefits are that;it boosts economic regeneration;it offers a future, meaning that it holds out a promise for growth;it is one of the fastest growing economic activities;and it is a key driver towards economic growth. The tourism industry can provide considerable benefits to host communities through economic development, infrastructures development and as a medium for protecting the environment and culture. The chapter concludes by examining the future growth of the aviation industry, discusses international regulations and how this will affect tourism within the African region. The impact of COVID-19 on the tourism sector is revisited and discusses the overall impact on the travel and tourism industry. Finally, analysis on climate and environment is discussed and the International Civil Aviation Organization provides recommendations for the air transport industry to combat climate change and reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

4.
Sustainability ; 15(11):8885, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-20241301

ABSTRACT

The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak has impacted the aviation industry worldwide. Several restrictions and regulations have been implemented to prevent the virus's spread and maintain airport operations. To recover the trustworthiness of air travelers in the new normality, improving airport service quality (ASQ) is necessary, ultimately increasing passenger satisfaction in airports. This research focuses on the relationship between passenger satisfaction and the ASQ dimensions of airports in Thailand. A three-stage analysis model was conducted by integrating structural equation modeling, Bayesian networks, and artificial neural networks to identify critical ASQ dimensions that highly impact overall satisfaction. The findings reveal that airport facilities, wayfinding, and security are three dominant dimensions influencing overall passenger satisfaction. This insight could help airport managers and operators recover passenger satisfaction, increase trustworthiness, and maintain the efficiency of the airports in not only this severe crisis but also in the new normality.

5.
SpringerBriefs in Applied Sciences and Technology ; : 51-59, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20240962

ABSTRACT

This study outlines the stress factors and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the stress variables among aviation workers, which includes airline employees, flight crews, pilots, maintenance crews, air traffic controllers, airport or ground workers, engineers, training personnel, and other aviation-related personnel. A review was done on 37 research papers using systematic literature review (SLR) and discovered nine stress factors among aviation workers which are working hours, workloads, internal factors, ergonomic issues, job uncertainty, job demands, organizational issues, team conflict, and the COVID-19 itself. The findings of this study could provide insights to employers in the aviation industry for mitigation actions that could help to successfully reduce and eliminate stress factors in the workplace. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.

6.
33rd Congress of the International Council of the Aeronautical Sciences, ICAS 2022 ; 9:6493-6501, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20240545

ABSTRACT

This work is an analysis of the implications of the potential new regulatory policies being recently proposed in the European Union, in particular the mandatory blending of SAF (on top of the already existing CORSIA or ETS), to address aviation emissions from a technical, operational and economic perspective. As a continuation of previous work from the Department of Aerospace Systems, Air Transport and Airports from the ETSIAE (Universidad Politécnica de Madrid), the air traffic structure of the European Union in 2019 has been analysed based on publicly available data from EUROCONTROL and EUROSTAT. The output has been used as the reference scenario for the implementation of the mandatory blending of SAF, expected to take over at the beginning of 2025, since it is expected that by then, air traffic will reach the pre-COVID levels. The results show that all the policy options considered so far have uneven impact among the different stakeholders and that before deciding going forward with any of the presented options, extra work needs to be done to overcome the different challenges that would potentially arise. © 2022 ICAS. All Rights Reserved.

7.
Integrated Communications, Navigation and Surveillance Conference, ICNS ; 2023-April, 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20239449

ABSTRACT

We recently concluded a four-year University Leadership Initiative (ULI) project sponsored by NASA, which investigated multiple aviation communications technology areas aimed at enhancing future aviation safety. These areas were dual-band air-ground communications for air traffic management, detection and interdiction of small drones, and high-capacity terrestrial airport communications networking. In this paper we report on flight test results of our dual-band radios. These radios were designed to use a spectrally efficient multi-carrier modulation, filterbank multicarrier (FBMC), which we had previously shown to improve resilience to high-power distance measurement equipment (DME) adjacent-channel interference, in comparison to existing orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) schemes. In our NASA project, we designed the FBMC radios to extend performance even further, using the following techniques: (i) simultaneous dual-band transmission and reception;(ii) ground station (GS) spatial diversity;(iii) higher-order modulation for a factor of 5 capacity increase over QPSK;(iv) a Doppler-resilient option using a smaller number of subcarriers;and, (v) 5-MHz bandwidth C-band transmissions for an order of magnitude capacity increase over existing 500-kHz channel schemes. To our knowledge, these are novel achievements for civil aviation, and our flight test results attained a technology readiness level (TRL) of 5. In this paper we briefly describe the project history, in which we spent approximately one year working with Boeing to participate in one of their Eco-Demonstrator flight trials, and obtained special temporary authorizations to transmit in both the L-band and C-band, from the FAA, the FCC, and the DoD. When COVID-19 dispersed worldwide, Boeing was no longer able to support us, so we revised our plans and teamed with the South Carolina Civil Air Patrol (SC CAP) to conduct smaller-scale flight tests. This paper summarizes the radio designs and the novel features we employed, as well as analyses, computer simulations, and laboratory tests prior to terrestrial mobile testing, all of which culminated in our successful flight tests. We show example flight test results that serve as proof of concept for all the five aforementioned radio performance enhancements. Example results include signal-to-noise ratio and bit error ratio, diversity gains, and throughput gains through both higher-order modulation and wider bandwidth channels. We also report on some lessons learned, and some ideas for future advancement of our work. © 2023 IEEE.

8.
The International Journal of Human Resource Management ; : No Pagination Specified, 2023.
Article in English | APA PsycInfo | ID: covidwho-20238862

ABSTRACT

Although the literature on psychological contracts is rich, researchers have so far paid limited attention to psychological contracts in times of crisis. To investigate how employees assess their psychological contracts during a crisis, we conducted 32 semistructured interviews during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe. The interviewees worked in the airline industry, which the pandemic severely affected. Our qualitative approach allowed us to gain novel insights into the mechanisms by which contracts are managed when the typical parameters of contract assessment are not possible, thereby allowing us to expand psychological contract theory. In addition to illustrating the key employer obligations that employees perceived during a crisis, we introduce two novel theoretical concepts -psychological contract credit and psychological contract inactivation - that explain how employees managed their contracts during the crisis. The practical findings of this study are of relevance to HR managers in managing future crises and addressing the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

9.
Aviation Psychology and Applied Human Factors ; 13(1):69-70, 2023.
Article in English | APA PsycInfo | ID: covidwho-20237248

ABSTRACT

Flight Safety Foundation's 75th annual International Air Safety Summit (IASS;https://flightsafety.org/) was held November 7-9, 2022, at the Omni Atlanta Hotel at CNN Center in Atlanta, GA, USA. The IASS 2022 agenda featured presentations and panel discussions on a range of safety-related topics with an emphasis on the industry's ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the recognition that the mental and emotional well-being of personnel and the development and maturation of robust organizational safety cultures are important elements of the safety landscape. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved)

10.
Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation: Third Edition ; 4:2377-2422, 2022.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-20236796

ABSTRACT

During the past several years, the circumstances surrounding aviation sector have changed considerably from the environmental aspects. International aviation sector is included in neither Kyoto Protocol (1997) nor Paris Agreement (2015), although domestic aviation is covered by both. In fact, the international aviation is left to the deliberation at ICAO, a UN specialized agency. In 2016, ICAO has set the first ever global market-based measure for an entire sector, the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) in order to achieve the global sector target of 2% annual fuel efficiency improvement and carbon-neutral growth from 2020 onward. Market-based mechanism is also written in Paris Agreement (Article 6) but member states continued to negotiate its details and they are not yet agreed upon as of August 2020. It might be said that the general perception of air travel has been significantly diversified from traditional safety and efficiency only, to include more and more environment and sustainability just as we can see in the terminology of "Fly Shame.” This could be because there have been steadily growing concerns about environmentally negative aspects of aviation congestion at many air travel hubs, social and community levels of adverse effects of over-tourism, and occurrence of more and more severe natural disasters from powerful typhoons or huge wildfires, which many suspect could be caused by climate change stemming from emission of GHGs including from autos or aircrafts. Then came the COVID-19, which could fundamentally change the way of traveling, working, and even communicating in the direction of touchless, remote, or virtual relationships. Its imminent effects are overwhelming worldwide, but the medium-or longer-term effects are yet to be seen. We have now common global target and the basket of measures to achieve it in international aviation sector at ICAO. In the domestic aviation sector, which is now covered in Paris Agreement, parties also agreed on the common global target and started constructing details of the measures to achieve the target, such as market-based mechanism. The effective financial and technical aids, for example, from developed countries to the developing ones, are ever more important to incentivize and execute the necessary efforts of both sides to actually meet the global target. We are going to shed lights on the incentive design problem between developing countries and developed ones with the framework of the game theoretic analysis under asymmetric information structure focusing on the so-called double moral hazard situation of the two sides. The main results show that it is extremely difficult for both sides to achieve common optimal incentive rules about aid payments under the information asymmetry. The measures to drastically mitigate the cost of efforts, to fundamentally reduce risk averse, and to equalize damage effects of temperature anomaly between the two sides through scientific researches and long-term education on the matter are the key for such optimal incentive design. © Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2022. All rights are reserved.

11.
Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand ; : 1-21, 2023.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-20231074

ABSTRACT

Prior to COVID, the global aviation industry was growing rapidly. Growth has now resumed and is predicted to continue for at least the next three decades. Aotearoa New Zealand has particularly high aviation emissions and has been on a very rapid growth path that is incompatible with the Paris Agreement on climate change. Government, intergovernmental, nongovernmental, academic and industry sources have proposed technological innovations to address aviation emissions. These include sustainable aviation fuels, electric and hydrogen powered aircraft, and increases in efficiency. We review these and assess that none of them will lead to a significant reduction in emissions in the short to medium term. In addition, we demonstrate that even very aggressive uptake of new technology results in the New Zealand aviation sector exceeding its share of the carbon budget as determined by the Paris Agreement. Therefore, we examine the fundamental drivers of growth in aviation: the tourism and airport industries, emissions pricing and substitutes, and the distribution of air travel. Governance of this sector is challenging, but it is changing rapidly. We conclude that a national aviation action plan needs to be developed and implemented based on the 'Avoid/Shift/Improve' framework in use in other areas of transportation planning.

12.
Indonesia Law Review ; 12(1):17-31, 2022.
Article in English | Web of Science | ID: covidwho-2328351

ABSTRACT

This article aims to analyze the urgency of aircraft mortgage regulation to provide an alternative solution for airlines that requires a loan to maintain their cash flow sufficiently by placing their aircraft as debt collateral. Since the issuance of Law Number 1 of 2009 on Aviation, the provisions regarding aircraft mortgage as debt collateral was removed from the previous Aviation Law Number 15 of 1992. Article 12 Paragraph (1) of Law Number 15 of 1992, governed that aircraft could be subject to mortgages, however, this provision was abolished by the new Aviation Law Number 1 of 2009. Article 465 of the new Aviation Law explicitly states that all provisions in Law Number 15 of 1992 are no longer valid, meanwhile, Law Number 1 of 2009 on Aviation, in no way regulates aircraft mortgages. In practice, this legal vacuum has become a problem for airline companies to place their registered aircraft as collateral in form of a mortgage. Particularly in the Covid 19 pandemic, which until the end of 2021 has not ended yet, it has caused severe damages to the financial balances of many airlines due to the absence of passengers and restrictions to fly by the Government. The aircraft can be used as collateral or security interest for, for example, a working capital loan. This research is a normative study that will discuss and analyze the types of collateral over aircraft that are most likely to be carried out by airlines in Indonesia amid the unavailability of aircraft mortgage regulation. This article also attempts to find possibilities that may be engaged to solve the problem.

13.
Transport Economics and Management ; 1:13-21, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2328281

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the extreme vulnerability of our aviation system towards external disruptions. While there have been several earlier aviation-related crises, the impact of COVID-19 is unmatched in the history of modern aviation. Accordingly, a better understanding of the mechanisms and ramifications of this pandemic is instrumental for preparing towards future external disruptions. The contribution of our study is threefold. First, we dissect the disruptive impact of the pandemic on the scientific literature and extract the major trends and insights. Given the wide range of related venues and the extent of disruption, there have been many studies published in the last 2–3 years. Second, we perform a data-driven analysis of the full disruption cycle containing three episodes, starting with the epidemic shock early in the year 2020, over the pandemic stalemate, towards the endemic-induced recovery in the year 2022. Third, we summarize the major insights and derive a set of policy recommendations and future research directions which we consider essential on the way towards what we call pandemic-resilient aviation.

14.
Research in Transportation Business & Management ; 49:100986, 2023.
Article in English | ScienceDirect | ID: covidwho-2328213

ABSTRACT

With increasing climate change concerns, there are calls for action to reduce aviation greenhouse gas emissions. Universities are responsible for a significant amount of air travel and this study evaluates approaches to reduce aviation emissions at Griffith University, in the Southeast Queensland area of Australia. The research involved consultation with the Griffith University community. A series of semi-structured interviews with ten relevant stakeholders and a week-long immersive digital discussion with 52 staff using the digital platform Recollective were conducted. University staff described how the COVID disruption gave them the chance to reflect and develop innovative and immersive teaching and research practice. Some university staff were very supportive of the environmental cause relating to air travel, whilst others were more resistant due to work and career-based concerns. It was determined that the travel booking process would be enhanced with tools such as a carbon calculator, an emission impact dashboard, a flight data management system, and improved visualisation of information. Some interesting and innovative ideas also emerged from the study regarding individual incentives and a university-wide campaign effort. Finally, the university has committed to an implementation plan and aviation emissions reduction target of 25% by 2030, based on 2010 levels, following the case study.

15.
International Journal of Professional Business Review ; 8(4), 2023.
Article in English | Scopus | ID: covidwho-2327311

ABSTRACT

Purpose: The aim of this study is to examine the Malaysian government's actions towards the aviation industry to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic and the transition phase from pandemic to endemic. Transition phase refers to a temporary period before the country could fully enter the endemic phase which is subject to an announcement by the World Health Organisation (WHO). Theoretical framework:The study on air transport affected by pandemic and industry action toward the endemic phase. This study refers to the conceptual framework for emergency department design in a pandemic by Aujirapongpan (2023): Relationship between state, hospital and ED in pandemic preparedness planning and response. Design/methodology/approach: The approach used is qualitative research that are observation and literature review. Findings: The results demonstrate the Malaysian government's actions during the transition period from pandemic to endemic. Restrictions on travel between areas cause the public to be unable to move at will, causing passengers to be unable to buy plane tickets. The government's actions have indeed had an impact on the airline company's income. Among the significant effects are the workers who were laid off in the era of the pandemic. At the same time, the government is also trying to help airlines financially to survive while waiting for the endemic period. The Malaysian government does not have a specific framework for the airline industry to face the pandemic, however, the Malaysian government gives a quick reaction to control the situation. Research, Practical & Social implications: The study gives comparative responses on the aviation industry by the government when faced with a pandemic, as well as planning for the transition to the endemic phase. Originality/value: The result indicates the government participation and action changes of the air transport operation on the Covid-19 pandemic to endemic transition phase. © 2023 AOS-Estratagia and Inovacao. All rights reserved.

16.
Front Psychol ; 14: 1073857, 2023.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2321369

ABSTRACT

Introduction: Pilots are a unique occupational group who perform a specialised job and face significant stressors. Pilot mental health has received increased attention since Germanwings Flight 9525; however, this research has largely focused on general anxiety, depression, and suicide and relied on a questionnaire-based methodology. This approach is likely to miss various mental health issues that may affect pilot wellbeing, leaving the prevalence of mental health issues in aviation unclear. In addition, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to have a particular impact on the mental health and wellbeing of pilots, who experienced the devastating effect of COVID-19 on the industry. Method: In the present study, we conducted a comprehensive assessment of 73 commercial pilots during the COVID-19 pandemic, using the DIAMOND semi-structured diagnostic interview and explored possible associated vulnerability and protective factors, including life event stressors, personality, passion, lifestyle factors, and coping strategies. Results: The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on aviation during the time of this study, affecting 95% of participants. The diagnostic results revealed over one third of pilots had symptoms of a diagnoseable mental health disorder. Anxiety disorders were the most commonly found disorders, followed by Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), Adjustment Disorder, and Depressive Disorders. Pilots' high life event scores placed them at an increased risk for the development of stress-related illness, though did not explain which pilots had mental health difficulties in this study. Regression analysis supported a diathesis-stress model for pilot mental health, with disagreeableness and obsessive passion contributing to pilots' development of mental health issues, and nutrition as the most important protective factor. Discussion: This study, though limited to the COVID-19 pandemic, provides a valuable precedent for a more thorough assessment of pilot mental health, and contributes to the broader understanding of pilot mental health, including suggestions to target factors associated with the development of mental health issues.

17.
Applied Sciences ; 13(9):5257, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2319952
18.
Journal of Transportation Security ; 16(1):2, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2318003

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the effect of security oversight on air cargo price and demand. We exploit variations in security oversight instituted by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). We estimate a simultaneous equation model using proprietary operations data from a major airline in South Korea over the period 2009–2013. This study explores the shipping-charge behavior of a service provider through a modeling approach that considers air cargo security. Our findings show that security oversight increases air cargo demand, controlling for the effect of price. Improving security measures increases the air cargo price, but the magnitude of this increase is small. Our results should help policymakers gauge the benefit of improved security and help airlines design an effective model to determine future air cargo shipping charges under high uncertainty to mitigate short- and long-term financial risks.

19.
Equality, Diversity and Inclusion: An International Journal ; 42(4):480-493, 2023.
Article in English | ProQuest Central | ID: covidwho-2314585

ABSTRACT

PurposeThe aim of this paper is to explore the evolving nature of the work of cabin crew in a Scandinavian carrier in three eras, drawing on theories of gender and emotional labour.Design/methodology/approachThe paper draws on ethnographic data from fieldwork, interviews and documents.FindingsFrom being a feminized and temporary occupation for young, upper- and middle-class women in the 1970s, the occupation became a full-time job and with greater diversity of cabin crew. Today there are signs of the job becoming a precarious and temporary one of demanding and devalorized work in a polarized and class-divided labour market. Changing circumstances impact on the emotional labour requirement and terms and conditions at work.Research limitations/implicationsA limitation is that the research design was not initially longitudinal in the sense that the author does not have exactly the same kind of data from each era. The author has, however, been involved in this field for two decades, used multiple methods and interacted with different stakeholders and drew on a unique data material.Practical implicationsThe development in aviation is contributing to new discriminatory practices, driving employee conditions downwards and changing the job demands. This development will have practical consequences for the lives and families of cabin crew.Social implicationsThe analysis illustrates how work ‘constructs' workers and contributes in creating jobs that are not sustainable for the employees. Intensification of work, insecurity and tougher working conditions also challenge key features in the Nordic model such as proper pay, decent work and a life-long employment. Much indicates that the profession is again becoming a temporary one of demanding work with poor working conditions in a polarized and class-divided labour market.Originality/valueThe research contributes to the literature on emotional labour, gender and the evolving nature of the work of cabin crew. The unique data material, the longitudinal aspect of the research and the focus on a single network carrier are good in charting changes over time.

20.
Transp Res Rec ; 2677(4): 204-218, 2023 Apr.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: covidwho-2314210

ABSTRACT

The COVID-19 pandemic had a dramatic impact on aviation in 2020, and the industry's future is uncertain. In this paper, we consider scenarios for recovery and ongoing demand, and discuss the implications of these scenarios for aviation emissions-related policy, including the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). Using the Aviation Integrated Model (AIM2015), a global aviation systems model, we project how long-term demand, fleet, and emissions projections might change. Depending on recovery scenario, we project cumulative aviation fuel use to 2050 might be up to 9% below that in scenarios not including the pandemic. The majority of this difference arises from reductions in relative global income levels. Around 40% of modeled scenarios project no offset requirement in either the CORSIA pilot or first phases; however, because of its more stringent emissions baseline (based on reductions from year 2004-2006 CO2, rather than constant year-2019 CO2), the EU ETS is likely to be less affected. However, if no new policies are applied and technology developments follow historical trends, year-2050 global net aviation CO2 is still likely to be well above industry goals, including the goal of carbon-neutral growth from 2019, even when the demand effects of the pandemic are accounted for.

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